The most recent issue of Publishers Weekly ran an interview with Lucius Shepard, published in conjunction with that writer’s upcoming best-of collection from Subterranean Press. For some reason, this sparked a memory of an entry in Mike Ashley’s The Illustrated Book of Science Fiction Lists, which was put out by Virgin Books back in 1982.

One of the lists in that book was from Algis Budrys, and titled “10 Most Promising New Science Fiction & Fantasy Writers.” I’d remembered that Shepard had been on that list, but I was drawing a blank as to the identities of the other nine writers. So I pulled down the book from the shelf and found the full list of the 10 writers whom Ajay thought showed the most promise 26 years ago. They were:

1. Paul Preuss
2. Parke Godwin
3. Arsen Darnay
4. Michael Swanwick
5. Somtow Sucharitkul
6. Victor Besaw
7. Lucius Shepard
8. Madeline Robins
9. Robert L. Forward
10. Robert Frazier

Wrote Budrys at the time: “‘New’ means people to whom John Varley is a Grand Old Man, which means that most names won’t mean much in Britain yet, but I would advise any reader to keep an eye open for stories by all of the following. They won’t be disappointed.” He added: “Besaw is a retired schoolteacher who has just begun to have his science-fantasy novels published. The rest are, in the main, young and upcoming.”

Looking at the list more than a quarter of a century later, I will make no stab at which writer has become the most artistically successful, for there are a few writers here whom I have not read, nor will I take a guess at which has become the most commercially successful, as I am not privy to their sales figures. But in terms of winning awards, I believe Swanwick is in the lead, followed by Shepard.

Which of today’s newcomers would I place on such a list, attempting to predict great success in 2034? The two new writers who have most impressed me in recent years have been Benjamin Rosenbaum and Paolo Bacigalupi. However—though they are promising, can either of them really be considered new any longer? Perhaps the only writers I should put on this list are those still eligible for the John W. Campbell Award, that is, writers who have only been published within the past two years.

But I’m not going to dare to pull together such a list. Will you?